The "Trump Bump" Check: What Social Security Disability Recipients Expect From the 2026 COLA

With the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) approaching, many SSDI and SSI recipients are speculating about what changes lie ahead. Some hope for a "Trump bump," a sizable benefit increase under the new administration, while others worry that any adjustment will fall short of their basic needs.

Last year’s 2025 COLA increase was just 2.5%, the smallest since 2021 but still close to the 20-year average of 2.6%. That modest boost left many beneficiaries struggling to keep pace with rising costs, setting the stage for heightened expectations around the 2026 adjustment.

The official COLA announcement, typically released in mid-October, was rescheduled this year due to a delay in the Consumer Price Index report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the updated CPI data, which determines the COLA, will now be published later in the month.

A recent survey of over 400 SSDI and SSI beneficiaries sheds light on what these Americans expect from the 2026 COLA and how they're preparing financially. We'll also explore the gap between perception and reality when it comes to what actually drives these annual increases.

Key takeaways

• Over 1 in 10 SSDI and SSI recipients (11%) expect a "Trump bump," a significant COLA increase in 2026.

• On average, SSDI and SSI recipients expect the 2026 COLA increase to be 2.2%, but say they need at least 5.1% to maintain their basic living costs.

• Nearly 1 in 10 SSDI and SSI recipients (9%) have already adjusted their budget ahead of the COLA announcement.

• Nearly 1 in 10 SSDI and SSI recipients (9%) have delayed medical treatment while waiting for a COLA increase.

• Over 3 in 4 SSDI and SSI recipients (76%) believe politicians use COLA announcements as a campaign tool or election promise.

How recipients are navigating the 2026 COLA

• More than 1 in 3 SSDI and SSI recipients (35%) believe COLA will stay flat or shrink, while 28% expect a modest increase, and 25% are unsure about what to expect.

• Nearly 1 in 4 recipients (24%) plan to adjust their budgets based on the upcoming COLA announcement.

• Half of SSDI and SSI recipients are waiting for the official COLA number before making budget changes, but about 1 in 10 (9%) have already made adjustments.

• Over 3 in 4 SSDI and SSI recipients (76%) believe politicians use COLA announcements as a campaign tool or election promise.

• Nearly 1 in 10 SSDI and SSI recipients (9%) have delayed medical treatment while waiting for a COLA increase.

What recipients will do if the COLA falls short

• Cut back on groceries or essentials (61%)

• Sell personal belongings (36%)

• Delay paying certain bills (34%)

• Cut back on transportation (32%)

• Skip medical appointments or prescriptions (31%)

• Use credit cards or loans to make ends meet (26%)

• Ask for financial help from family or friends (23%)

• Fall behind on rent or risk eviction (19%)

• Reduce or cancel internet/phone service (18%)

What recipients would do with a larger-than-expected COLA

• Catch up on bills (50%)

• Pay off debt (40%)

• Rebuild savings (35%)

• Cover housing costs (29%)

• Make larger grocery purchases or stock up (27%)

• Spend on medical/dental care they've been putting off (23%)

• Set aside for transportation (17%)

• Make a major purchase (8%)

• Nothing would change (5%)

• Donate to family or others (4%)

What recipients believe drives the COLA

• Inflation rate (39%)

• Political party in power (19%)

• Decisions by Congress (14%)

• Presidential decisions (6%)

• Cost of specific goods or services (6%)

• Unemployment rate (2%)

What actually determines the COLA

The annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits is determined by the federal government using a specific formula based on inflation data. Specifically, the Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The percentage change in this index from the third quarter of one year to the third quarter of the next sets the COLA for the following year.

This means that COLA increases are not set by the president, Congress, or political parties, though they often become talking points during election years. Instead, they are automatic adjustments tied directly to inflation.

"There's a lot of confusion around who controls Social Security increases," said a data journalist on behalf of Atticus. "In reality, it's a nonpartisan formula based on inflation. While politicians may promise more, the COLA is calculated independently and isn't subject to campaign influence."

Methodology

We surveyed 433 Americans receiving either SSDI or SSI benefits to explore how program recipients are planning for the 2026 COLA under a new administration. The average age of the respondents was 47; 64% were women, 34% were men, and 2% identified as non-binary. Generationally, 15% were baby boomers, 39% were Gen X, 33% were millennials, and 13% were Gen Z.

About Atticus

Atticus makes finding legal help easy. We're the first place people in crises can turn to claim the aid they deserve.

Fair use statement

This information may be used for noncommercial purposes only. Please include a link to Atticus with proper attribution if you share this content.